TMG January 2010

How would you like to have a crystal ball that could provide visibility on 3, 5 and 10 years hence?  You can and you should.

We all say the pace of change is accelerating.  So ..... choose!

1. Become more reactive - rely upon ‘logical incrementalism’, responding to elements of change as they become apparent OR
2. Build capabilities, strategic assets and foresight, positioning yourself to innovate earlier, create futures and out-compete, sustainably.

If you build your strategy around incremental change, based on a current, near term view of the market, you make it easy for your competition to pass you by.

Has your strategy development process adequately responded to accelerating change?

If it has, you are right into Foresight.  Whilst most companies do some form of competitive intelligence and market scanning, their process has not sophisticated in response to the accelerating pace of change.

If change is your most constant reality, anticipate it, tame it and harness it – get ahead of it.

So what is foresight?

Foresight examines not just possible futures, but probable, preferable and “wild card” scenarios as input to the strategy development process.

There is a wealth of input upon which to draw, honing it to relevance for your industry, markets and organization.

Demographics, rising cultural influencers, technological advance, environmental care and protection, consumer sentiments and so on all have both underlying macro trends and rogue elements that are potential catalysts for game changing.  Analysis will give you a preview.

Then, within most industries there are highly relevant and valuable experts providing insight into trends.  Also, suppliers, customers and known competitors are all valuable sources of foresight and information is more readily available (ethically) than most organizations might think.  There are the specific research institutes, commentators and emergent small, innovative competitors – all fantastic sources of creativity, vision and competitive intelligence.

Examples abound for every industry, here are two examples to whet your interest in foresight.

Check out this clip from AT&T produced in 1993 (about the time you got your first mobile phone).  Foresight for business is a far cry from crystal ball gazing.

Imagine a retailer whose margin was in the fee you pay to shop and not the goods you buy.  New business models are everywhere.  The stimulate thoughts about the emergent changes in your own industry.

Some of this information organizations’ collect informally, but in today’s competitive climate, something more deliberate is required.  You need to both assemble foresight – and become a participant in its emergence.

You might begin with a deliberate process of researching, reporting and experiencing what is available in a defined period.  A broad scan and where interest appears, a deep dive.You might also have organizational members, especially your most flexible and creative, participating in groups and projects, internally and externally.  Not only do you have ideas in incubation, but some live projects as well.  There they will gain the most foresight and also contribute to what emerges.  

All of this can be widely socialised so that your whole team has an informed sense of tomorrow’s landscape. Imagine the contribution this makes to developing competitive advantage.

How much more informed is your SWOT analysis?  How much better will you understand your market forces?  How much better will you be at tackling and Ansoff Matrix or Blue Ocean exercise?  Strategy development techniques such as World Cafe, Open Space and the like are now supercharged.  The creative potential for real innovation and breakthrough insight is radically improved.

And, how much strong is the argument to inspire the Board when you ultimately present strategy recommendations?

Foresight Analysis is a service offered by TMG as part of your preparation for strategy development.  This introduction to Foresight was drafted by Peter Boyce, Director of Consulting at TMG.

 

 

T |M | G  strategyfacilitation
Contact us
Tel 03 9010 9010 (Aust.)   Fax 03 9857 3733 (Aust.)
Web: www.tmg-strategy-facilitation.com.au
Email: